Notes from the IAFC’s WUI 2009 conference

In my last blog post about WUI 2009, I mentioned how impressed I am with the fire service’s level of engagement in big-picture issues, exemplified by global climate change. This impression is due in large part to Timothy Murphy, deputy assistant director of the Fire and Aviation Directorate as the Bureau of Land Management, and his presentation on the 2009 Quadrennial Fire Review (QFR).

The QFR is a review of trends in American wildland fire based on the Quadrennial Defense Review, the Department of Defense’s 4-year review of future challenges and general trends. The idea is a big-picture take that involves all the players coming together, taking the best research they can find, synthesizing it and creating an integrated review around which to rally and prepare.

More than once Murphy said the QFR was intended to inspire “cantankerous debate,” but, despite his efforts, the audience remained orderly and quiet. Even around the bar that evening, all the talk seemed to be more along the lines of refinement than “cantanker.”

I know what he means, though. This was not very politically correct. Well, let me put that into perspective—not very politically correct coming from huge, sometimes-competing government agencies. They didn’t gloss much over the bad news and I congratulate them on that. This is what he meant by cantankerous: The news is big and bad.

What we are talking about here is a shift in culture in response to a changing world. Changes in culture, as the fire service knows, are never easy, but there are times when they are necessary. For all the talk of change in this last election season, I think for many people the status quo hasn’t lost its fuzzy, back-lit warmth. Enter frothy cantankerousness.

Why should we change? Because the writing is all over the wall that we’ll soon have our backs up against if we don’t.

Basically, emergencies for many reasons are getting worse and money is drying up. The federal response must be quick, efficient, and centralized, while communities in the WUI will need to learn to fend for themselves and manage nearby lands. NIMS-compliant Community Wildfire Preparation Plans will be prepared at the local level, to reflect the local culture, and then coordinated with federal land-use plans.

Read: Protection at all costs is a thing of the past. Fire-adapted communities will survive wildfire. Cantankerousness!

The report amply supports these conclusions.

The QFR addressed five topics: global climate change, the expanding wildland-urban interface, escalating emergency-response demands and fiscal stress. Climate change I’ve covered in my previous post, but suffice it to say here, fires in the wildland are getting and will continue to get bigger.

The next point, drought, is separated from climate change, though the two are linked. According to the QFR, we’re in the first decade of a 30-year drought. This drought will see the proliferation of new and exotic plant and animal species, as well as wide-spread beetle kill. Meaning: more, bigger, and hotter fire and less water to throw at it.

Which brings us to the WUI (finally!). People will continue to flock the WUI from the nation’s colder climes, and timber holdings will transfer to real estate holdings, which have less of an incentive in large-scale land management.

All emergencies will get worse, whatever they might be, and they will likely touch firefighters in some capacity. I wasn’t entirely clear on what these emergencies would look like but I’m thinking natural disasters, terrorism, etc.

Lastly, he spoke about fiscal stress, which is not, in the report’s estimation, short term, but rather a long grinding reality from now onward. This sounds right to me. Our financial crisis is not like the dot-com bubble, no simple business-cycle downturn. In fact, it makes the word bubble sound cute.

This is a big deal. An American financial crisis begat a world-wide economic crisis, which in turn begat an employment crisis, which will beget—what?

Government coffers, especially at the state and local levels, are going to suffer for a long time. The only way I see for the federal government to pay for the trillions in stimulus is by printing heaps of money, which means inflation. So tighten that belt, again.

There are plenty of reasons to change, but the QFR wisely recognizes that changes in culture are accepted or rejected in large part based on how they are communicated, especially as we shift responsibility. Communities, fire departments and federal land-use planners all need to know what they can expect and what is expected of them. The top-down approach to communication, in the QFR’s estimation, is dated.

Even critical information during emergency incidents will, in the future, be more about neighbors than leaders. This may sound crazy at first blush, but consider the number of big newspapers going under these days. Consider that small communities often carry on without a newspaper at all. For these people, the Web offers more local information than they’ve ever had access to.

The GFR foresees a time when community wildfire and emergency information will be spread peer-to-peer on the Web—in forums, chat rooms, social networks, and blogs. Yes, blogs, like this one.

In fact, the government will begin creating wiki pages for wildland fire terms, so that the public can influence and own the definitions. Furthermore, Murphy told us that the QFR will be announcing its own blog shortly!

The future is—not—yet—one second—okay—now!

I hope you were ready for that.

In the meantime, don’t take my word for it. Check out the QFR at www.nifc.gov/QFR/QFR2009Final.pdf.