Notes from the IAFC's WUI 2009 conference

Qualifiers always preface responsible comments to a general audience about global warming, but it seems to me that we, the public and the fire service, are finally filing into a consensus along similar lines as the scientists. As proof: The qualifiers are more streamlined than ever, a mere bump before we’re off and rolling.

And so Dr. Faith Ann Heinsch from the Missoula Fire Sciences Lab began: “Climate change is a big topic surrounded by a lot of misinformation.” Something we can all agree on!

And now for the bad news.

Using numbers and graphs and models, she painted a riveting, vivid picture. The world is getting warmer. Fires are getting worse. Moreover—brace yourselves—this is caused in no small part by human actions, specifically our proclivities to emit greenhouse gasses and lay concrete over carbon-sequestering ecosystems.

To the 300 or so wildland firefighters in attendance at this general session, the implications of Dr. Heinsch’s research were palpable. But there was little fidgeting and instead a lot of nodding and note-taking. I was glad to see my hometown chief, Chief Tracy Jarman, rapturously taking down notes.

The challenge firefighters face posed by global climate change is immense. The western North American fire season is 78 days longer than it once was and has seen a six-fold increase in burned acreage. Spring is coming earlier and fuel loads increasing, while summers are longer and drier. Beetles are making quick work of stressed forests. Forests are burning at hitherto unheard of elevations. Entire ecosystems are transforming. And we haven’t even talked about the WUI yet (I’ll post about this later).

But Dr. Heinsch posed questions as well. A hotter atmosphere holds more water and so it remains to be seen whether our wet seasons will get wetter, or whether prolonged drought is in our forecast. The answer to this question will make a huge difference in the way our world will look.

More water would lead to greater fuel loads, because it would tend to fall as rain in heavy bouts that will be followed by long dry seasons, but it would also mean we could maintain or even increase our current food production levels.

The widespread drought option, on the other hand, offers no silver lining that I can think of (and I’m only reminded of The Byrds, paraphrasing Dylan, “Nothing is better, nothing is best. Take care of your health and get plenty of rest.”)

Yes, overall the news is bad. The national parks we love are going to burn. Glaciers and woodlands will retreat and species will die out. The large demographic shifts to the country’s warmer zones, coupled with relentless WUI home construction, means that more people are going to lose their homes and their lives. This in turn means that more firefighters will put their lives on the line.

This is not, you’ll quickly recall, some distant dystopia, either. It’s happening. A San Diego native, I saw fires in 2003 and again in 2007 challenge the way I think about wildland fire. My city will soon begin rationing water again. The hills are loaded with fuel and there’s no sign of rain. Farmers are murmuring. We’re being challenged right now, every day, even if we’re sometimes able to forget it.

There will be difficult policy decisions to be made. Dr. Heinsch reminds us that a warming globe demands, above all, cool heads. When we speak of climate change, we’re talking about an immense and immensely complex system—a system that might be fundamentally beyond complete human comprehension but which nonetheless is affected greatly by human actions.

Our policies must be bold as well as adaptive to track evolving scientific theory. I left WUI 2009 assured that America’s fire service is on the forefront of the science of global climate change. I was, quite frankly, humbled and assured by the level of engagement I encountered.

And I suppose, for me, therein is something of a silver lining. A once-venal argument has given way to something more civil and more sober. Scientists are no longer apologizing for being unsure. The demagogues and attention-seekers are quietly being ushered out. The costs of inaction are being soberly weighed against the costs of action.

I saw it firsthand: The paradigm has shifted for the fire service. This is our new reality.