Notes from the IAFC’s WUI 2009 conference

We Americans, never quite comfortable with the Australian Leave Early or Stay and Defend (LEOSAD) concept to begin with, are less so now. The Victoria Fires that killed at least 173 people in southern Australia in February have given us, at least, pause as we consider applying this policy here.

But let me not generalize about Americans and take responsibility for myself. Among the first things I said to Keith Harrup, assistant commissioner of the New South Wales Rural Fire Service, about Victoria was that here in the U.S. it was “a real game changer.”

“Well it shouldn’t be,” he shot back. “The investigation’s hardly begun.”

The Australians are adamant and I should know: the FireRescue magazine booth was right next to a boisterous gaggle of Aussies representing the International Wildfire Management Conference in Sydney this year. Good on ya, mates!

Much of their conversations were along these lines.

And nothing to them, yet, suggests abandoning LEOSAD. It might require refinement, sure, but the basic tenants stand proved over the long term. Not a single firefighter died in Victoria, they remind us. Furthermore, what happened is under investigation. The preliminary report won’t be available until Aug. 1. But until then, best not to speculate too broadly, they warned.

And the more I learn about it—about both LEOSAD and the Victoria Fires—the more I agree.

When we abandon the LEOSAD acronym in the United States—and we must; we can’t simply import a policy from 8,000 miles away without adaptation—I suggest that the new one begin with a P. In the American media, LEOSAD is portrayed as a single-pronged response: defense. It’s a lot more than that. At its essence, it’s about preparation. It’s also about personal responsibility. And it’s about power to the people.

Power to the people?

That’s right, brothers and sisters, power to the people. And if you want to know why I say this, read or reread the 2009 Quadrennial Fire Review. We simply don’t have the resources to protect every WUI structure in all cases, and the world is changing.

So folks who live in the WUI must be prepared well before the fire comes. If they have any intention to defend their property, they must be amply prepared to do so. If not, they must be prepared to leave and to leave in plenty of time. Either way, the idea is an informed populace who will make these decisions on individual basis because no one knows their status and specific conditions better than they do.

Unfortunately, media coverage in the U.S. of the Victoria Fires sets us back several paces. Over here, coverage was SADDD (Stay and Defend, Defend, Defend). Adapting, and then adopting, a similar policy in the U.S., if it ever happens, is going to require a well-crafted message, as well as ongoing dialogue between the fire service and WUI communities. Communications will be key to our success.

And according to Harrup, as a result of the LEOSAD policy, Australians are generally very aware of their fire-prone environment and their responsibilities therein. This is why the investigation of the Victoria Fires is so critical. Something or many things went wrong. But to suggest that what went wrong resulted from an essential flaw in LEOSAD is a logical leap that no one I encountered at the conference would make.

Part of the reason is that the fire conditions seen in Victoria were literally unprecedented. The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, the gauge Australia uses to determine fire danger in forests and grasslands, reached a level never before seen in Victoria the day the fire broke out, a day they are calling Black Saturday. Temperatures were around 115 degrees F. Winds gusted at around 80 mph. Drought had plagued the region for 30 years and fuel loads were heavy.

“This was not a bushfire,” said Harrup. “This was a firestorm.”

Residents had been advised to leave, in fact, several times prior to the fire. However, some may have been fatigued by the message when the fires did not initially materialize. Also, the region is popular with weekenders from Melbourne, many of whom might have headed to the hills to escape the heat that Saturday, and these people might not have paid the warnings mind.

Add to this winds that repeatedly changed directions: There was less of a fire front than an explosion of fire throughout the region—25 fires raging at once. People found themselves suddenly surrounded.

I was reminded of something Cal Fire Battalion Chief Kelly Zombro, who was the initial-attack IC on the Witch Fire during the firestorm of 2007 here in San Diego, told me about that experience: “When you get conditions like this, with winds this strong, there’s no thinking you can stop the fire. It’s a natural disaster like a hurricane. Nobody thinks he can stop a hurricane.”

The photos of Victoria before the fire show a gorgeous landscape: green, densely wooded with a blanket of ferns on the forest floor. Hills rose and fell and gave way to wide grasslands, rimmed by dark forest. Here and there a house. It’s no wonder people sought this place out.

As I looked at the photographs fire investigators took afterward, I had to wonder: Was there any systematic approach that could have better dealt with such a hellish conflagration? Short of cutting down all the trees or preventing development in the area—which would likely promote development elsewhere and which, moreover, would never happen in the U.S. anyway, so it’s a nonstarter—what could you have done?

And it was then that I reached the conclusion that the LEOSAD debate in the U.S. has gotten too emotional. Many people here have jumped to their conclusions too soon and the Victoria Fires have served only to confirm or deny their own prejudices, and this is shameful.

This topic deserves more serious consideration. A lot of people died and many more saw their lives changed profoundly. Remember what the QFR tells us: fires here will get bigger and badder; the WUI will grow; the drought is in its first of three decades; and money is and will be scarce.

Let’s wait for the Aug. 1 preliminary report before throwing the LEOSAD concept to the dustbin of history. And then let’s approach that report critically, with cool heads, and with the humility to admit that a similar situation could happen here, if we maintain the status quo.